FAST FIVE: Why The Bear Market In Stocks May Only Be Halfway Through

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Certainly, assessing the likely future path for corporate earnings and studying price patterns and momentum are both worthwhile if not crucial to successful investing.

Fundamentals tell a story about trends in the business cycle and technicals tell you how investors react to hearing that story.

As to the fundamentals, history suggests that the rapid rises in the dollar, interest rates and oil prices over the past couple of years represent a uniquely bearish trifecta that will likely have a very negative effect on earnings over the next year or so.

Long-term technicals, notably momentum, appear to confirm this analysis.

And bearish fundamentals paired with bearish technicals may simply be an effective way of defining a bear market (better at least than the arbitrary 20% rule).

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