FAST FIVE: The War Has Just Begun

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In places where the Russian Army has chosen to deploy sizeable regular formations, the results have been disastrous for Ukraine – the infamous Kherson Counteroffensive turned into a shooting gallery for Russian artillery, with the Ukrainian Army haplessly funneling men into a hopeless bridgehead at Andriivka.

Otherwise, Russia's winter offensives are likely to be concentrated on mutually supporting fronts.

I think some movement to reopen the northern is likely, as it would completely compromise Ukraine's gains in the Izyum-Kupyansk direction.

The importance of the pipeline to Russia lay in the fact that it could be switched on and off, providing a mechanism for leverage and negotiation vis a vis Germany.

Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive.

Categories: ZH