FAST FIVE: The War Has Just Begun
In places where the Russian Army has chosen to deploy sizeable regular formations, the results have been disastrous for Ukraine – the infamous Kherson Counteroffensive turned into a shooting gallery for Russian artillery, with the Ukrainian Army haplessly funneling men into a hopeless bridgehead at Andriivka.
Otherwise, Russia's winter offensives are likely to be concentrated on mutually supporting fronts.
I think some movement to reopen the northern is likely, as it would completely compromise Ukraine's gains in the Izyum-Kupyansk direction.
The importance of the pipeline to Russia lay in the fact that it could be switched on and off, providing a mechanism for leverage and negotiation vis a vis Germany.
Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive.