FAST FIVE: As Few As Ten Congressional Districts May Decide The 2022 Midterm Elections
538 poll synopsis updated September 23, 2022 Like Nate Silver or not, the above 538 House Forecast is a reasonable starting point for discussion. Silver has the Republicans a slight favorite (68-32) favorite to win the House.
That margin seems more than “slight” but use your own definition.
If you give all 11 seats in the blue box to Republicans and all else stayed the same (it wouldn't) Republicans would pick up 4 more seats for a net pickup of 11. If you give all 11 seats in the blue box to Democrats and all else stayed the same (it wouldn't) Republicans would only flip a net of 3 seats giving Democrats a 218 to 217 majority of 1. That latter scenario, or a similar outcome is unlikely, but it's possible.
The vote will come down to turnout, policies, and mostly on winning over independents.
Here are those issues: Inflation, education, school boards, woke policies, massive tax hikes, and potential blue state pension bailouts. Results in very a very red-state Kansas show abortion is mostly a losing message for Republicans.