FAST FIVE: Peakish Growth? The 10Y Yield Decline Is More Signal Than Noise
But it is the pace of deceleration that matters more, and that remains an open question.
At the moment, it looks “peakish” from GDP expectations to Fed hike timing to CPI forecasts.
After all, the “base effects” that are helping make inflation look horrid today will be completely the opposite in 2022.
Simply, the deceleration of inflation could be one of the more surprising features of late 2021 and 2022.
Maybe the decline in the 10-year yield is more signal than noise.