FAST FIVE: The Hubris Backing Forecasts Should Be Of Great Concern, Not Comfort

Published by on

The confidence and hubris backing forecasts should be of great concern, not comfort.

Per the MIT Technology Review, the essence of his work is that “small  changes can have large consequences.” His logic is better known as the Butterfly Effect.

The following graph, courtesy of Deutsche Bank, highlights how Wall Street economists have consistently erred in their expectations for higher interest rates over the last fifteen years.

Are we to believe the effects and consequences of such extreme monetary and fiscal policy, occurring concurrently, are easy to predict? What kind of professional would fail to recognize the peril of such a claim.

Of course, they can extrapolate current trends and make educated guesses on how consumers and corporations react to future events.

Categories: ZH