FAST FIVE: Looking Forward At Interest Rates, The U.S. Dollar, Volatility, And The B117 Variant
Looking Forward at Interest Rates, the US Dollar, Volatility, and the B117 Variant Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a nuanced discussion of how the economic recovery will evolve over the next few months.
Raoul and Ed interpret today's dismal retail sales figure, which indicate a contraction of total retail activity for the third straight month.
With the new B117 COVID-19 variant on the move, Raoul expects economic activity to continue to decline, ebbing away at the dominant reflationary trades that are short US Treasurys as well as the US dollar.
Lastly, Raoul and Ed wax philosophical about “the death of macro”: what would happen if the volatility of interest rates and currencies – the bread and butter of macro investing – were extremely low over the next decade.
In the intro, editor Jack Farley provides context on bank earnings and the recent short squeeze of GameStop Corp ($GME).