FAST FIVE: Blain: A Non-American's Take On The US Election

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Rasmussen tends to be an outlier from other polls (and does seem to favour Trump), but they were the most accurate pollster in the 2016 election.

In addition, they are happy to point to swings against Trump from younger and female voters, and all the predictable stuff about the electorate turned off by Trump and his family.

Whatever the top-line polls say, even hardened Trump supporters admit Biden is likely to win the popular vote by 3-5%.  Biden could well win by 7 million votes. Turnout looks set to be the highest in decades at 150mm; 65% of the electorate.

But, high turnouts in New York and California and Illinois don't help Biden win the critical electoral college votes.  Biden can win the vote and lose the election.  That's why the US Election will be decided in the key 16 states.

  · Biden needs to win Texas and/or Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Minnesota, Arizona, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada.

Categories: ZH