FAST FIVE: Cascend: "This Is The Most Important Chart Of The 2020 Election"

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Cascend: “This Is The Most Important Chart Of The 2020 Election” Tyler Durden Fri, 10/23/2020 – 17:00 By Eric Ross, Chief Investment Strategist at Cascend.com This is the most important chart of the 2020 election: Trump starts with a less-stable base But 216 of 535 Electoral College votes are too close to call Let that sink in: 40% of Electoral College votes appear too close to conclusively call as of today Even if we assume that states with only a 2% or greater spread are set, 66 Electoral College votes are up-for-grabs 2% spread is well within margins of error – it's really a toss-up Sentiment analysis suggests Biden may squeak by But swing states are really toss-ups and targeted action can drastically change this race This is the same data, but as the complete form which suits data scientists and investors best: our Electoral College daily probability heat map It is a very clear way to see the daily changes in election probabilities, particularly how major events change the probability landscape and which states cause the changes Each of the columns is a day (ending October 18th) Each row is a state, with the height of the state's row/cells determined by the relative number of electoral votes (i.e.

California's row height is much higher than Maine) This gives an easy visual reading for Electoral College voting likelihood Blue for Biden, Red for Trump The color intensity is based on the win/lose spread – white is “undecided” (exactly 50/50) You can easily see how events in the 2020 election impact daily voter sentiment for the two candidates Data is based on our consumer sentiment technology An increasing number of states are now swing states (and will decide this election) Florida (2.9% to Trump) Pennsylvania (+1.8% to Trump) Georgia (+0.4% to Trump) But- Arizona (+0.2% to Biden) North Carolina (+0.1 to Biden) Michigan (+1.4% to Biden) New Hampshire (+1.6% to Biden) Minnesota (2.0% to Biden) South Carolina (2.2% to Biden) Nevada (2.4% to Biden) Maine (2.6% to Biden) Wisconsin (2.7% to Biden) -.it's really a complete toss-up Florida is trending toward Trump Pennsylvania is trending toward Trump Biden has a small advantage in Arizona Georgia Michigan Minnesota New Hampshire North Carolina Wisconsin There is clearly an issue with the efficacy of traditional polling for US Presidential elections The majority of polls in 2016 widely favored Hillary Clinton to win by a significant margin Virtually every poll also failed to predict Brexit and the UK general election One issue is that traditional polls generally capture “positive” support, whereas much of these elections have been driven by negative sentiment There were clearly many voters who were not polled, and may not be discussing their preferences openly We see 2020 as similar (in polling efficacy) Virtually every major poll out there suggests Biden is far ahead and a landslide is likely: Does ourĀ  heat map or analysis above suggest a landslide win to you.

Our methodology is very different from a traditional pollster: We utilize our proprietary consumer demand sentiment technology to elucidate trends in specific interests, much as we would measure brand activity In 2016 our models suggested an 80% chance that Donald Trump would win the general election versus Hillary Clinton Our models currently predict a much tighter race than in 2020 However, the spreads are tighter in key states and public opinion is far more volatile in 2020 than in 2016.

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