FAST FIVE: Lies, Damned Lies, & UK Health Statistics: The Deadly Danger Of False Positives

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There was a very interesting piece in the BMJ in recent days that offers potential support for this contention.

A person's sample can be positive if they have the virus, and so it should.

I'm focusing solely on the false positive rate in Pillar 2, because most people do not have the virus (recently around 1 in 1000 people and earlier in summer it was around 1 in 2000 people).

But in our Pillar 2 example, what is the probability a person testing positive in Pillar 2 actually has COVID-19.

But now the probability a person testing positive has the virus is an absurdly low 6% (5 divided by 80 + 5).

Categories: ZH