FAST FIVE: US COVID Herd Immunity Calculated At 12% Of The Population
That amounts to 2.7% and 0.3% of the population respectively.
As Harris notes next, at times the COVID crisis is presented as a one-for-one trade-off between the economy and public health, although as experience across the world shows “nothing could be further from the truth” and explains: There is a good reason that China was at first hit the hardest, but has had a V-like recovery: It first denied the crisis and then adopted a very strong mitigation strategy.
Thus in the US, BofA notes that the second spike in cases was curbed with relatively moderate changes in behavior, slowing but not stopping the economic recovery.
Harris also expects the recent pick-up in European cases to play out in a similar way.
And while this dampening is not due to herd immunity- which as calculated at 12% above is not nearly enough to contain the spread – instead the dampening occurs “because people learn from experience” and take appropriate measures, while also impacting those who are least susceptible to serious consequences, such as people under 40.