FAST FIVE: Jobs Data Officially Broken? More People Getting Unemployment Benefits Than There Are Unemployed Workers
Alas, it also means that jobs “data” is now completely meaningless.
For all the analysis of today's job report, is it good, is it bad, is this data series too hot, and does it mean that the Fed will soon be forced to hike, we have just one response.
Because a simple sanity check reveals that as of this moment the jobs report no longer makes logical sense.
In a Venn diagram, the Continuing Claims circle would fit entirely inside the “Unemployed” circle, which also includes Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, and countless other unemployed Americans who are no longer eligible for any benefits. Alas, as of this moment, the definitionally smaller circle is bigger than “bigger” one, and as the DOL reported today, there were 19.29 million workers receiving unemployment insurance.
And yes, there is a “forced” explanation to justify how this may actually happen in the current situation where everyone is abusing jobless benefits, but in theory this should not be happening, and we fully expect that in the coming weeks, the already highly politicized BLS will quietly close this gap.