FAST FIVE: Nobel Prize Winner: Lockdowns Are "A Huge Mistake"
Intuitively, if there's a high reproduction rate, you should see that exponential curve just going up and up.
I think social distancing that stops people moving from London to Manchester is probably a really good idea. My feeling is that in London, and in New York City, all the people who got infected, all got infected before anybody noticed. There's no way that the infection grew so quickly in New York City without the infection spreading very quickly.
The standout losers are countries like Austria, Australia, Israel that actually had very very strict lockdowns but didn't have many cases.
So an excess of 100,000 for this whole year, is actually not that much.
It turns out that I immediately wrote an article in the same medium and replied to him, saying that in fact the answer was actually one month, not one year.