FAST FIVE: This Is The Longest Contraction In UK Credit Impulse Since The Early 1990s
The current situation is profoundly different since it is Brexit uncertainty that is driving the economic downturn.
Strategic view : Our central scenario remains the extension of Article 50, that should be requested by October 19th, and new Parliamentary elections that could take place five weeks after the initial Brexit deadline, ie end of November/beginning of December.
There is still extreme positioning on the GBP.
The speculative community remains widely short GBP, though it has slightly compressed since mid-September on the hopes of a new extension.
If this scenario is confirmed, it could be immediately followed by a technical rebound of the GBP.