FAST FIVE: Dr.Doom Exposes The Growing Risk Of A 2020 Recession And Global Crisis
Last summer, my colleague Brunello Rosa and I identifiedten potential downside risks that could trigger a US and global recession in 2020.
The monetary and fiscal interventions and private-sector backstops used after the 2008 financial crisis simply cannot be deployed to the same effect today.
After all, in 2007-2009, the Fed and other central banks reacted aggressively to the shocks that triggered the global financial crisis, but they did not avert the “Great Recession.” Today, the Fed is starting with a benchmark policy rate of 2.25-2.5%, compared to 5.25% in September 2007.
The conflict could escalate further in several ways.
And, given the scale of private and public debt, another financial crisis would likely follow from that.