FAST FIVE: What To Look For In Today's "Potentially Relevant" FOMC Minutes
The FOMC's April/May meeting saw the Fed firmly in neutral with recent Fedspeak suggesting that the Fed remains in “patient, or “wait and see mode,” assessing how trade wars will impact growth and inflation.
Traders will be particularly attentive to any guidance on the 'transitory' nature of inflation, uncertainties around trade, and 'insurance' rate cuts.
The FOMC had a discussion on the composition of the balance sheet; a decision will need to be taken at future meetings, and any changes will be telegraphed well in advance, Powell said.
Analysts expect, therefore, that the minutes will show a broad consensus for that neutral stance and a high threshold for possible insurance rate cuts.
Credit Suisse has argued that Powell's categorisation of inflation as transitory might be an effort by policymakers to push back against speculation of an insurance rate cut.