FAST FIVE: Key Events In A Tumultuous Week: ECB, Brexit Vote And A Barrage Of Economic Data
On the ECB, Jim Reid notes that DB economists expect a “dovish tightening,” i.e.
In China we've also got a number of important releases including November trade data tomorrow, November CPI and PPI on Sunday and November activity indicators (retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment) on Friday.
We expect a 0.1% increase in the core measure excluding food and energy, and a 0.2% increase in the core measure excluding food, energy, and trade, as mean-reversion is likely to weigh on the trade services category.
We expect roughly 0.25% gains in the shelter categories, as alternative rent measures have continued to slow but vacancy rates remain low.
Friday, December 14 08:30 AM Retail sales, November (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.8%); Retail sales ex-auto, November (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, November (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, +0.3%); Core retail sales, November (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%): We estimate that core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials) rose at a solid pace in November (+0.7% mom sa), reflecting strong holiday sales trends, both online and at brick and mortar establishments.