Overall, Goldman expects that oil prices will turn from a roughly neutral factor for GDP growth year-to-date into a 0.1-0.2pp headwind in Q4 and 2019H2, as the 0.25pp drag from lower consumer spending will soon outweigh a shrinking 0.1pp contribution from energy capex.
And, as noted above, it is only in 2019H2 that oil is likely to turn roughly neutral as capacity constraints ease and the drag on consumer spending dwindles.
Goldman finds that in addition to substantially lifting headline inflation, the recent rise is likely also contributing to the rise in core inflation.
The peak core inflation boost from energy prices is therefore likely to occur around the time Goldman expects to see a meaningful boost from additional tariffs on imports from China.
The negative growth effects and positive inflation effects from higher oil prices bring us back, at least directionally, to the pre-shale era where oil shocks were often followed by sharp growth slowdowns or even recessions.